NZ Lottery odds compared: top prize chances side by side

NZ lottery top prize odds at a glance

Here’s a straightforward comparison of New Zealand’s main lottery games based on the odds of winning their top prize, plus the cost per line to play each game. This table lays out the essential numbers clearly:

*Lotto tickets must be purchased in blocks of four lines, making the minimum spend $2.80.

How are these odds calculated?

Each game’s odds come down to combinations — the number of different ways you can pick certain numbers from a set.

• Lotto Division 1: You must match 6 numbers from 40. The number of combinations is calculated as the binomial coefficient C(40,6), which equals 3,838,380. This means one in almost 3.84 million lines wins the top prize.

• Powerball Division 1: This builds on Lotto by adding the Powerball. The Powerball is 1 of 14 balls. So you multiply Lotto’s 3,838,380 by 14, giving 53,737,320 possible combinations to get the exact winning set and Powerball.

• Strike Division 1: You pick 4 numbers in exact order, and since each digit (0-9) can appear, odds are 10,000 to 1 (10^4).

• Keno 10 of 10: You choose 10 numbers that must all be among the 20 drawn from 80. The odds are given by C(80,10) divided by C(20,10), which equals 8,911,711.

• Bullseye: You match a six-digit number in exact order. Each digit ranges 0-9, so odds are 10 to the power of 6, or 1,000,000.

These calculations show how many unique winning combinations exist; buying one line is a single guess among them.

Let’s break down one example in detail. For Lotto, the formula C(n, k) means the number of ways to choose k numbers out of n, without regard to order. For Lotto, n = 40 and k = 6. There are 3,838,380 such combinations. When you buy one line, you pick one combination. The chance that your line matches the drawn set exactly is 1 divided by 3,838,380.

Powerball multiplies that chance by 14 because the Powerball is a separate draw of one number from 14 possibilities, making it much harder to win the combined top prize.

What a line costs in each game

Cost is an important factor alongside odds. A cheaper line might let you play more often, but a pricier line changes the value perception.

• Strike costs $1.00 per line. You pick four numbers exactly, so each line is a single attempt.

• Bullseye costs $2.00 per line. It’s a six-digit number, so you pay a bit more for the chance to match that number exactly.

• Lotto lines cost $0.70 each, but because you must buy four lines together, the minimum ticket purchase is $2.80. This means your smallest Lotto spend per session is higher than the base line price.

• Powerball is an add-on to Lotto. You pay $0.70 for the Lotto line plus $0.80 for Powerball, totalling $1.50 per line.

• Keno lines cost $1.00 each. It’s a different type of game with draws every few minutes rather than weekly.

Understanding cost per line helps compare how far your money goes and how many chances you get to win. For example, with $5 you could buy five Strike lines, two Powerball lines, or multiple Keno lines.

For details on pricing rules and ticket formats see what a line costs.

What does 'easiest to win' really mean?

When people ask about the easiest lotto game to win in NZ, they usually mean which game offers the best chance of winning the top prize. That is clear from the table: Strike has the easiest top prize odds at 1 in 10,000.

But odds of winning any prize paint another picture. Games like Lotto and Powerball have multiple prize divisions. Lower divisions have better odds, often in the thousands or hundreds. Strike’s prize structure and Bullseye’s might be different.

For example, Lotto Division 1’s odds are about 1 in 3.8 million for the jackpot, but lesser prizes are won more frequently. This means while the jackpot is hard to hit, there are many smaller wins.

If you want to understand prize divisions and their odds, see what each prize division means.

Similarly, Keno offers a wide range of prize tiers with odds varying by how many numbers you match. It’s possible to win smaller prizes more often.

So “easiest to win” depends on whether you mean the top prize or any prize at all. Strike offers the easiest top prize win statistically, but games like Lotto and Keno may offer more frequent smaller wins.

For a direct comparison of the top three games’ chances, see Lotto vs Powerball vs Strike.

Why a bigger top prize is not a better bet

Powerball’s extremely long odds—1 in 53,737,320—reflect in part its often larger jackpots. But these bigger jackpots mean the chance to win is much lower.

Sometimes players might think a bigger top prize offers better value. However, all these games are designed as entertainment products with a negative expected return. No game is a better investment than another.

The bottom line is that every draw is independent and random. The size of the jackpot doesn’t change your chance of winning that specific draw.

If you want to compare other games, including Instant Kiwi scratch cards, see Instant Kiwi compared with Lotto. For Keno’s details, see the Keno guide, and for Bullseye, see the Bullseye guide.

Playing these games should be for fun and entertainment, with the knowledge that odds are long and no strategy can improve your chances.

If gambling stops being fun, free support is available from the Gambling Helpline on 0800 654 655.